NFL Picks Week 15

Steelers (-3) over FALCONS - W
Packers (-3.5) over BILLS - L
Jaguars (+14) over RAVENS - W
GIANTS (-4.5) over Washington - W
Dolphins (+8.5) over PATRIOTS - L
Raiders (+11) over CHIEFS - L
Texans (+7) over COLTS - D
Bengals (+1.5) over BROWNS - W
Bucs (+3.5) over PANTHERS - L
TITANS (+3.5) over Jets - L
CHARGERS (+4) over Broncos - L
LIONS (-7.5) over Vikings - L
SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over 49ers - W
Cowboys (+3) over EAGLES
BEARS (+3) over Saints

NFL Picks Week 12

NFL Picks Week 12

Browns (+3) over FALCONS

Titans (+12) over EAGLES

Lions (+7) over PATRIOTS

PACKERS (-7.5) over Vikings

COLTS (-13.5) over Jaguars

Bengals (+2.5) over TEXANS

BEARS (-4) over Bucs

SEAHAWKS (-7) over Cardinals

Rams (+5.5) over CHARGERS

BRONCOS (-6.5) over Dolphins

Washington (+10) over 49ERS

Cowboys (-5) over GIANTS

SAINTS (-3) over Ravens

BILLS (-2) over Jets

NFL Picks: Week 7

Home team in CAPS

RAVENS (-6.5) over Falcons
Titans (+5) over WASHINGTON
Seahawks (-6.5) over RAMS
Browns (-4) over JAGUARS
Bengals (+3) over COLTS
BILLS (-6) over Vikings
BEARS (-3) over Dolphins
New Orleans (+1) over LIONS
Panthers (+6.5) over PACKERS
CHARGERS (-3) over Chiefs
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAIDERS
Giants (+5) over COWBOYS
49ers (+6.5) over BRONCOS
Texans (+3) over STEELERS


Last Week: 9-5
Season: 16-9-1

NFL Picks: Week 6

Week 6

Broncos (-7) over JETS - W
BROWNS (Pick) over Steelers - W
TITANS (-4) over Jaguars - L
FALCONS (-3) over Bears - L
Packers (-3.5) over DOLPHINS - L
Lions (-1) over VIKINGS - W
Panthers (+7) over BENGALS - W
BILLS (+3) over Patriots - L
Ravens (-3) over BUCS - W
Chargers (-7) over RAIDERS - L
Cowboys (+8) over SEAHAWKS - W
CARDINALS (-2.5) over Washington - W
EAGLES (-3) over Giants - W
49ers (-3.5) over RAMS - W

Week 6: 9-5

Last Week: 7-4-1
Season: 16-9-1

NFL Picks Week 5

The season's a month old. You know what that means. I'm back. 2014 edition.



PANTHERS (-1) over Bears - W
Browns (-1) over TITANS - T
EAGLES (-4.5) over Rams - W
Falcons (+4) over GIANTS - L
Bucs (+10) over SAINTS - W
Texans (+5.5) over COWBOYS - W
Bills (+5.5) over LIONS - W
Ravens (+3) over COLTS - L
JAGS (+6) over Steelers - W
Cardinals (+7.5) over BRONCOS - L
49ERS (-4.5) over Chiefs - W
CHARGERS (-6.5) over Jets - W
Bengals (-2.5) over PATRIOTS - L
Seahawks (-7) over WASHINGTON - W

Week 5: 9-5-1
Season: 9-5-1

Week 7 Picks

These are posted late but I promise I wrote them down on time.

Seahawks (-6.5) over CARDINALS - W
FALCONS (- 4.5) over Bucs - W
LIONS - 1.5 over Bengals - L
Bills (+8) over DOLPHINS - W
PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Jets - L
WASH (+4) over Bears - W
Cowboys (-3.5) over EAGLES - W
Rams (+8) over PANTHERS - L
JAGS (+9) over Chargers - L
49ers (-7) over TITANS - W
Browns (+11) over PACKERS - L
CHIEFS (+7) over Texans - L
Ravens (+1) over STEELERS - L
Broncos (-6.5) over COLTS
GIANTS (-3.5) over Vikings

NFL Picks: Week 6

Last week was a rocky start, with the added embarrassment that I flat out forgot to pick the MNF game. Part of me thinks it was kind of a weird, fluky week where games could have turned on a play or two, but most of me knows that I'm probably just ignorant this season. Here's go number one at trying to turn things around.


BEARS (-7.5) over Giants - L
Bengals (-7) BILLS - L
Lions (-2.5) over BROWNS - W
CHIEFS (-7.5) over Raiders - W
VIKINGS (-2.5) over Panthers - L
Steelers (+2.5) over JETS - W
Eagles (-1) over BUCS - W
Packers (-3) over RAVENS - L
Rams (+7) over TEXANS - W
Jags (+26.5) over BRONCOS - W
SEAHAWKS (+13.5) over Titans - L
PATRIOTS (-1) over Saints - W
Cardinals (+11) over 49ERS - L
COWBOYS (-5.5) over Washington - W
CHARGERS (+1.5) over Colts - W

This Week: 9-6
Season: 13-14

NFL Lines: Week 5

Now that I've had a few weeks to let the season settle in and get an idea of who deserves to be rated above whom, let's get down to bizness and make some gambling picks. Between Sunday morning work and Sunday afternoon homework I haven't been able to follow as closely (or drink as much beer) as I'd like to, but it's a gift I have, and one that I won't let excuses get in the way of giving.

WEEK 5

Bills (+4) over BROWNS - L
Saints (Pick 'Em) over BEARS - W
Patriots (Pick 'Em) over BENGALS - L
Lions (+7) over PACKERS - L
Chiefs (-2.5) over TITANS - W
Seahawks (-1) over COLTS - L
RAMS (-11) over Jaguars - W
DOLPHINS (-3) over Ravens - L
GIANTS (-1) over Eagles - L
Broncos (-7.5) over COWBOYS - L
49ERS (-6.5) over Texans - W
Chargers (-4.5) over RAIDERS - L

Week: 4-8



Quick thoughts:
*The Seahawks line is a slap in the face, O-Line or not.
*I'm betting on the Broncos until they show me I shouldn't (especially against the Cowboys, although I do like the 'Boys to have a lead at some point.)
*FITZMAGIC
*That's a big line for the Packers
*Either the Pats still aren't getting respect (deservedly) or Vegas puts a lot of stock in Wilfork.

2012 NFL Gambling: A Season in Review, Part Deux

BTB's 2012 Gambling Standings*

NFC
NFC SOUTH        20-17

Bucs                     9-1
Falcons                 4-4
Panthers                4-6
Saints                    3-6

NFC NORTH        25-10-2

Bears                    8-0-1
Vikings                 8-1
Lions                    5-3-1
Packers                 4-6

NFC EAST           19-19

Cowboys              7-2
Eagles                   5-4
Washington           4-6
Giants                   3-7

NFC WEST          20-16-2

49ers                    7-2-1
Seahawks              5-4-1
Rams                    4-5
Cardinals               4-5

NFC TOTAL         84-61-4  


AFC
AFC SOUTH         17-23

Jaguars                 5-5
Colts                     5-5
Titans                   4-6
Texans                  3-7

AFC NORTH        13-22

Bengals                 5-4
Browns                 4-5
Steelers                 3-6
Ravens                  1-7

AFC EAST           21-19

Patriots                 9-1
Jets                      6-4
Bills                      5-5
Dolphins               1-9

AFC WEST           22-16

Chiefs                   7-2
Raiders                 6-4
Chargers               5-4
Broncos                4-6

AFC TOTAL         73-80 

Notes and commentary:

Teams I owned (7+ wins)
Bucs, Bears, Vikings, Cowboys, Patriots, 49ers, Chiefs

This group can basically be summed up by 1) the "bad good teams" (Bucs, Bears, Vikes, Cowboys) who I could count on to barely win or choke against decent competition, and handle business against the crappy competition. 2) The awful team (Chiefs) and 3) "the really good teams" (Pats, 49ers).


Teams that owned me (7+ losses)
Dolphins, Ravens, Texans, Giants

Basically, the overrated teams (Giants, Texans), and the Dolphins who I thought were decent but never put it together and the Ravens, with whom my only win came on the fluke Chargers pick'em game when Ray Rice picked up the improbably third and long. I thought they were a good bad team, but then they won the super bowl

A couple of other notes:

Washington: it took me too long to believe in them during late season winning streak, otherwise might have nailed them.

Seahawks: Once I stopped playing the home team jinx game, I had them down. Lesson learned.

NFC, I know you.
AFC, fuck off.


*The numbers don't match up, I'm missing 2 games from the team-by-team standings and the overall standings, but I don't really feel like going back to figure out the minor mistakes. In a sample that large, 3 games is no big deal, anyway.

2012 NFL Gambling: A Season in Review, Part 1

Cones fall, trees grow, buds blossom, leaves sprout, leaves fall, then winter brings out the drunks in all of us, save for the fans of one lucky franchise, whose Super Bowl victory carries them through the dark doldrums of February, March and--depending on which region of America you happen to live in--April.

Now that my NFL divisional playoff wounds are completely healed, I feel like I'm able to at least speak about this past season, no matter what meekness pierces through the words and letters.

This year of MMXII marks the first semi-complete journey of fake football gambling for me, and I have mostly positive memories, especially considering I spent the bulk of the season in the mountains and on the beaches of Nicaragua, where I was lucky to catch a Spanish language broadcast pirated out of the Buffalo-Cleveland CBS network in Matagalpa, or unlucky enough to watch the Seahawks-Lions game at an ex-pat rapist haven in Granada.

Ah, well, I'll always have Monday Night Football in Week 3, the Golden Mary Game. I have reason to believe the Nicaraguan locals will never forget the visage of the crazy, blue-green-eyed gringo, twelve Tonas deep, crumbling to the ground for a painful moment--then suddenly leaping up into the air and running around in circles like a crazed fool. 14-12.

For people in Seattle, 14-12 will stand as long as 9-11. Never forget.

Yes, that brings us to numbers. For the games I actually got around to picking when I wasn't eyeball drunk on Flor de Cana, marooned on some distant God-fearing coffee farm, or wallowing in general despair, the count ended up slightly in the favor of the good guys: 79 wins, 71 losses, 2 ties.

79-71-2 works out to a .526 winning percentage, hardly worthy of Nostradamus, or even Swami Sez, but it beat the break even point of .524, just barely. Either way, I'll call it one hell of a good building block on my future gambling empire. If I had put $110 on each game my reward would have been a pretty sweet $90 Tuesday-Wednesday bender at my local dive bars.

I can also say with confidence that, although I didn't publish my playoff picks, I would have finished with a tidy 8-2 record, with a 3-1 divisional week (all but the Seahawks) and a perfect championship week (9ers to win as the favorites and Ravens to lose but cover). There was too much bitterness clouding my brain to come up with a pick for the Harbaugh Bowl aka the Garbage Bowl aka the Har-i-bowl. But let's look at the bright side, I was banking some cash money, baby.

Coming Soon: Team by Team, Conference by Conference Results

Playoff Picks: Round 1

TEXANS (-4.5) over Bengals
Vikings (+9.5) over PACKERS
RAVENS (-6.5) over Colts
Seahawks (-1) over REDSKINS


Playoff Record: 3-1

ed. note: I went 3-1 in week 2 of the playoffs, but never got around to posting my picks. I was too annoyed to pick the conference championships.

Week 15 NFL Picks

Forgive me, I never got around to picking last week. Amateur hour.

Here's most of Week 15, except for the bullshit Thursday game.

Giants (+1) over FALCONS - L
Packers (-3) over BEARS - W
BROWNS (+1) over Washington - L
Vikings (+1.5) over RAMS - W
Jaguars (+7) over DOLPHINS - L
Buccaneers (+3.5) over SAINTS - L
RAVENS (+2.5) over Broncos - L
Colts (+9.5) over TEXANS - L
Seahawks (-5.5) over BILLS - W
Lions (-6) over CARDINALS - L
CHARGERS (-3) over Panthers - L
COWBOYS (+1) over Steelers - W
RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs - W
49ers (+5.5) over PATRIOTS - W
Jets (+1) over TITANS - L

Awful, awful week. 6-9
Season: 79-71-2

Week 13 NFL Picks

I never got around to Thursday night, irresponsibility like nothing since early Nicaragua days. Shame on me. Nevertheless, here is the rest of Week 13.

Jaguars (+7) over BILLS - L
Seahawks (+3) over BEARS - W
Colts (+6) over LIONS - W
Vikings (+9.5) over PACKERS - W
Texans (-7) over TITANS - W
Panthers (-4) over CHIEFS - L
49ers (-8) over RAMS - L
DOLPHINS (+9) over Patriots - W
JETS (-6) over Cardinals  L
Buccaneers (+8.5) over BRONCOS - W
Browns (-1) over RAIDERS - W
Bengals (-1) over CHARGERS - W
Eagles (+10.5) over COWBOYS - W
Giants (-3) over REDSKINS - L

Holy shit, I only picked two home teams and it's the Dolphins and Jets for fuck's sake. Something is bound to go terribly wrong this week.

This Week: 9-5
Season: 74-62-2

NFL Picks Week 12

Thursday games in by the skin of my teeth.

Texans (-3.5) over LIONS - L
Redskins (+3.5) over COWBOYS - W
Patriots (-6.5) over JETS - W

And now for the rest:

Raiders (+9.5) over BENGALS - L
Steelers (Pick' Em) over BROWNS - L
COLTS (-3) over Bills - L
CHIEFS (+10.5) over Broncos - W
Seahawks (+2.5) over DOLPHINS - L
Falcons (Pick 'Em) over BUCCANEERS - W
JAGUARS (+3.5) over Titans - W
Ravens (Pick 'Em) over CHARGERS - W
SAINTS (+1) over 49ers - L
CARDINALS (-1) over Rams - L
Packers (+3) over GIANTS - L
EAGLES (+1) over Panthers - L

This Week: 6-9 (Ouch.)
Season: 65-57-2

NFL Picks: Week 11

New Orleans, LA--

Back in the USA. Here's some football picks.

Dolphins (+2.5) over BILLS - L
Cardinals (+9.5) over FALCONS - W
Browns (+9) over COWBOYS - W
Packers (-3.5) over LIONS - W
Bengals (-3.5) over CHIEFS - W
RAMS (-3.5) over Jets - L
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Eagles - W
Buccaneers (-1) over PANTHERS - W
TEXANS (-15) over Jaguars - L
Saints (-4.5) over RAIDERS - W
BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers - L
PATRIOTS (-9) over Colts - W
Ravens (-3.5) over STEELERS - L
49ERS (-5) over Bears - W

This Week: 9-5
Season: 59-48-2

NFL Picks: Week 10

Colts (-3) over JAGUARS - W

just for proof. May not get the rest up before kickoff. But maybe I will!

Fuck, it's Wednesday. They all run together.

The rest

Giants (-4.5) over BENGALS - L
DOLPHINS (-6.5) over Titans - L
VIKINGS (+3) over Lions - W
Bills (+13.5) over PATRIOTS - W
Falcons (-1) over SAINTS - L
BUCCANEERS (-3) over Chargers - W
PANTHERS (+4) over Broncos - L
Raiders (+9) over RAVENS - L
SEAHAWKS (-5.5) over Jets - W
Cowboys (-2) over EAGLES - W
Rams (+13) over 49ERS - W
Texans (+1) over BEARS - W
Chiefs (+12.5) over STEELERS - W

Week Ten: 9-5
Season: 50-43-2

Big afternoon comeback.

NFL Picks: Week 9

San Juan del Sur, Nicaragua --

Ahoy ahoy from the beach, fair readers, deviants and football enthusiasts. Too much bungling and traveling kept me from logging in quickly enough to pick San Diego, so I won't count it in my records. The Chiefs sure shit that one away, poor KC fans.

Broncos (-4) over BENGALS - W
BROWNS (+3.5) over Ravens - L
Cardinals (+10.5) over PACKERS - L
Dolphins (-2) over COLTS - L
Bears (-3.5) over TITANS - W
WASHINGTON (-3) over Panthers - L
Lions (-4.5) over JAGUARS - W
Bills (+10) over TEXANS - L
Buccaneers (Pick 'Em) over RAIDERS - W
SEAHAWKS (+4) over Vikings - W
GIANTS (+3.5) over Steelers - L
Cowboys (+4) over FALCONS - L
Eagles (+3) over SAINTS - L

Vegas, you evil temptress, you refuse to let me pick home teams.

Terrible week.

Week 9: 5-8
Season: 41-38-2

NFL Picks: Week 8

Laguna Apoyo, Nicaragua --

Drawing my prognosticating strength from the volcanic waters of Laguna Apoyo, where in addition to a serene lake there is also wifi and cold Tona--bajo cero, amigo. Let's not waste the mystical powers of the water any further, they evaporate quickly.

Buccaneers (+5) over VIKINGS - W
Panthers (+9) over BEARS - W
Chargers (-2.5) over BROWNS - L
Seahawks (+1) over LIONS - L

Shoot, I took a break and the magical waters evaporated. More crappy picks below.
PACKERS (-15.5) over Jaguars - L
TITANS (-3.5) over Colts - L
Patriots (-7) over RAMS - W
JETS (-1) over Dolphins - L
Falcons (+1) over EAGLES - W
Redskins (+4.5) over STEELERS - L
Raiders (Pick 'Em) over CHIEFS - W
Giants (-1) over COWBOYS - W
Saints (+7) over BRONCOS - L
49ers (-7) over CARDINALS - W

WHOA, way too many road teams this week.



This week: 7-7
Season: 36-30-2

NFL Picks: Week 7

Licking my wounds from a sub-.500 week, but determined to come back strong. Swami sez big week for the favorites, bringing the season of the underdog back toward normal.

Seahawks (+7) over 49ERS - P
I'm a little worried about a Thursday road game, but the Hawks haven't been blown out all season, why start now?
BILLS (-3) over Titans - L
Nervous about the Bills winning by more than three, but shout out to Ralph Wilson Stadium.
COLTS (-3) over Browns - W
Come down game for the Browns, Luck shakes off a bad game.
Packers (-5.5) over RAMS - W
Green Bay seems to have re-gained their mojo.
VIKINGS (-6) over Cardinals - W
I'm all about picking against the Cardinals now that their luck has run out.
GIANTS (-5.5) over Redskins - L
Giants linemen hassle RG3
Saints (-3) over BUCCANEERS - W
Brees still has playoff drees.
Cowboys (-2) over PANTHERS - W
Expecting Dallas to either dominate or implode with a loss. Dominating seems more likely.
Ravens (+7) over TEXANS - L
Taking the points here.
RAIDERS (-4) over Jaguars - L
Da Raiders trying their hardest to blow it, but I don't see Jags keeping it too close on the West Coast.
Jets (+10.5) over PATRIOTS - W
The Jets stink but still I think they frustrate the Pats enough to cover, barely.
Steelers (Pick 'Em) over BENGALS - W
I just think they have their number, even in the franchise decline.
BEARS (-6) over Lions - P
Lions were on tv here in Nica last Sunday, I wasn't overly impressed.

This Week: 7-4-2
Season: 29-23-2

Week 6 NFL Picks

Week 6 comin atcha

Steelers (-6) over TITANS - L
(I thought the Steelers would win by a touchdown, nearly did it, too.)
Raiders (+10) over FALCONS - W
(Coming off the bye week, I like the Raiders with the backdoor cover.)
Bengals (-2) over BROWNS - L
(Bengals are just better.)
DOLPHINS (-4) over Rams - L
(I don't like the Dolphins giving 4, but I'm going with the home favorite here.)
JETS (-3.5) over Colts - W
(Must win for the Jets. I just hope it's by more than three)
Lions (+3.5) over EAGLES - W
(Lions have stayed close to good teams, I don't think the Eagles are a good team.)
BUCCANEERS (-4.5) over Chiefs - W
(Back and forth on this one, but Brady Quinn in the Pirate Ship was the final story for me.)
RAVENS (-3.5) over Cowboys - L
(Ravens need to get the stin of last week off them.)
Bills (+4.5) over CARDINALS - W
(I don't trust the Cards to beat anyone by more than 4)
Patriots (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS - L
(Couldn't stomach a potential jinx on this one.)
Giants (+6.5) over 49ERS - W
(Eli game.)
Vikings (Pick 'Em) over REDSKINS - L
(Never go with Washington on a Pick 'Em.)
TEXANS (-3) over Packers - L
(Wary of must-win status for the Pack, but leaning toward them not being great.)
CHARGERS (Pick 'Em) over Broncos - L
(Better team.)

This week: 6-8
Season: 22-19

Lost quite a few games in the fourth quarter this week. As I warned on twitter, I didn't feel good about this week.